The Caulfield Cup - A Mile And A Half Sprint
Story By by Wayne Bristow
Friday, 17 October 2008:  | | Northerly wins the Caulfield Cup |
Usually run at a frenetic pace, you need both high speed and depth of stamina to win over this particular 2400m course as was displayed by possibly the two greatest winners of this race Might and Power and Tulloch some 40 years apart. Look at the winners since 2002.
2002 NORTHERLY 6g (Serheed x North Bell) ($5.50 fav)
Jockey: Greg Childs, Trainer: Fred Kersley
Barrier: 9, Weight: 58.0kg
Gross Time: 2:30.38, 600m Sectional: 35.26
Margin: 0.2L, Track: Good, Starters: 17
2nd: Fields of Omagh (53.5kg), 3rd: Republic Lass (52.0kg)
Northerly - an absolute star. That about sums up a horse who wasn't molly coddled by his trainer, took on all comers at handicaps and WFA and beat every one of the best around in a very strong era. No horse had carried 58kg to win since Ming Dynasty in 1980 and not many more have been good enough to win with near that since (Sydeston's 57kg in 1990 the closest). Craiglee, Underwood and Turnbull victories were all by under a length I'm sure Fred Kersley would have liked an easy one occasionally. In the race Dash for Cash and Tully Thunder took it up and Greg Childs popped out at the 1800 to sit in the death seat. Entering the home straight, Northerly was left a sitting shot but everyone knew he was a fighter. So much so that Damien Oliver, who had ridden him to a Cox Plate win, did not want to get physically close to Northerly because he believed the horse responded better when challenged. So he steered a course eight horses wide and got close but nothing would bring him undone. Childs took his record to 6 rides for 6 wins on the champ and that was at the same time as he was riding Sunline for whom he would give up the Northerly ride. Last word should go to Fred - I'm just so proud of this horse. Understated but oh so appropriate.
2003 MUMMIFY 4g (Jeune x Cleopatra's Girl) ($5.50 fav)
Jockey: Danny Nikolic, Trainer: Lee Freedman
Barrier: 13, Weight: 53.0kg
Gross Time: 2:25.98, 600m Sectional: 35.80
Margin: 0.8L, Track: Good, Starters: 18
2nd: Grey Song (51.5kg), 3rd: Distinctly Secret (53.0kg)
 | | Mummify |
A good 3yo season enabled the Freedman's the time and preparation to set Mummify for the Caulfield Cup. They knew he'd easily make the field and avoid any ballot problems so a well structured, traditional campaign was followed. The Liston and Craiglee came before his Underwood success on his favoured track. Then came the Turnbull which was supposed to be the final hit out. He got badly blocked and in effect it became a non competitive run. So Lee decided it best to back up a week later in the Yalumba where he was solid behind Lonhro and then the double back up into the 2400m race. Mummify fired out of gate 13, easily crossing as Gai's pair Grand Armee and Platinum Scissors sat near. Danny Nikolic made an interesting move down the railway side as he guided the gelding about 4 horses wide until the turn when he released the brakes early. It was a long, brave run for home but he was a brave horse. It was Lee Freedman's 4th Cup equalling TJ and only behind Bart. After the race Freedman offered I've never seen a horse have a cheaper lead in a G1 it's just a joke. The Caulfield Cup would be the greatest moment and the worst moment for all associated with this horse as he broke down when 3rd two years later.
2004 ELVSTROEM 4h (Danehill x Circles of Gold) ($4 fav)
Jockey: Nash Rawiller, Trainer: Tony Vasil
Barrier: 3, Weight: 54.0kg
Gross Time: 2:31.37, 600m Sectional: 38.27
Margin: 0.1L, Track: Dead, Starters: 18
2nd: Makybe Diva (55.5kg), 3rd: Grey Song (52.0kg)
 | | Elvstroem wins the Caulfield Cup |
This might be a very strange thing to say but we can all thank Elvstroem's nose for the greatest moment in Australian racing history one year later. Had the 2004 version of Makybe Diva won this Caulfield Cup with the 55.5kg, she'd have received a penalty of say 2kg, might have struggled to beat Vinnie Roe on the track and then would never have started in the 2005 Cup. Elvstroem had the breeding to be a Cup winner with his mum running 2nd to Arctic Scent in '96. He also had the form via Underwood and Turnbull lead ups. It was up to Nash Rawiller and boy did he deliver. Using the Mummify ride as a prototype, Nash took him straight to the lead but down the side he got off the fence as it was racing poorly inside. Elvstroem started the move for home but ominously Glen Boss had manoeuvred Makybe from 3rd last to a striking position at the 300. You'd have only wanted to be on one horse at that time but Nash had enough up his sleeve to hold her off by the slender margin. That made it three leaders to win in a row in this race. Again thank you to Elvis not only for your own success but playing your part in the annals of the great Cup moments.
2005 RAILINGS 4g (Zabeel x La Suffragette) ($8.50)
Jockey: Greg Childs, Trainer: John Hawkes
Barrier: 9, Weight: 52.0kg
Gross Time: 2:27.96, 600m Sectional: 34.70
Margin: 0.2L, Track: Good, Starters: 18
2nd: Eye Popper (54.0kg), 3rd: Mummify (57.0kg)
There is one thing nearly all Zabeel's have in common the mile and half. John Hawkes was satisfied, after his Derby placing, that the Caulfield Cup was the race best suited to his charge. A raft of early Sydney staying race got him fit and ready for the task. In fact his last win in the Metropolitan Hcp meant he had to become the first horse since Hayai in '83 to do the double. El Segundo was the weight horse of the race but possibly a distance query and we had the addition of not just the Godolphin team and Carte Diamond as well but also the first Japanese entrant Eye Popper. Mummify went forward and Eye Popper was posted but they both put up the most extraordinary runs. Just as they were being hailed as fighting it out, Railings emerged from the pack with a blazing run. His victory was sweet at the time but overshadowed in the aftermath by Mummify's sesamoid injury. While Railings would venture on, sadly, the grand warrior would not survive the next day.
2006 TAWQEET 5h (Kingmambo x Caerless) ($17)
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn, Trainer: David Hayes
Barrier: 2, Weight: 53.5kg
Gross Time: 2:27.69, 600m Sectional: 34.62
Margin: 0.4L, Track: Good, Starters: 18
2nd: Aqua D'Amore (52.0kg), 3rd: Delta Blues (56.0kg)
 | | Tawqeet wins the Caulfield Cup |
It had been a while since Lindsay Park had taken Caulfield Cup glory. Fraar had won in 1993 when most had hoped he wouldn't at the odds he went out. While Tawqeet, owned in the same interests, was at nice odds he was not the bolter Fraar was. As was mentioned earlier, it had been a long time between drinks for Metrop winners until Railings broke the drought. Tawqeet was trying to make it back to back. The day had earlier shown quite a fence bias and in the end 1st, 2nd & 4th drew gates 2,3,4. Because of the perceived advantage, Lee Freedman had sent his Turnbull stakes trifecta forward to counter the bias and race on the pace so they were leading out of the straight the first time. This time there were two Japanese runners and they ran outstandingly. Delta Blues was three wide the journey and had the temerity to stick his nose into the finish. Just before the turn Aqua D'Amore got inside Our Smoking Joe and went for home while Tawqeet tried to follow her through. But Dwayne Dunn looked for a run wider only to be disappointed so he jagged back on the fence. As the Coolmore mare was called the winner, Tawqeet surged to the line and was a deserved winner. Delta Blues run was a cracker and he would gain the greatest redemption three weeks later.
2007 MASTER O'REILLY 5g (O'Reilly x Without Remorse) ($8 fav)
Jockey: Vlad Duric, Trainer: Danny O'Brien
Barrier: 4, Weight: 50.5kg
Gross Time: 2:26.15, 600m Sectional: 35.11
Margin: 2.5L, Track: Good, Starters: 16
2nd: Douro Valley (51.5kg), 3rd: Princess Coup (51.0kg)
 | | Master O'Reilly wins the 2007 Caulfield Cup |
We all know about the Equine Influenza debacle let's not rabbit on about that. But the race itself had more than enough drama to fill any Hollywood script. Master O'Reilly was progressing well and his Winning Edge Presentation Stks win brought him into calculations. But he'd been well and truly thrashed by Maldivian in the JRA Cup and it was doubtful he'd be able to beat him home. Then we had the incidents at the barriers. Maldivian had a little history of worries in the gates and drawing barrier 1 wasn't all it was cracked up to be. First in he had to wait a long time and that five minutes affected him badly. He reared a few times, gouging himself on some TV equipment while Eskimo Queen, drawn 8 horses down, was set off by the commotion and spooked. With blood pouring down his throbbing neck, Maldivian and Eskimo Queen sat the big race out. Eventually it was underway and ironically Master O'Reilly and stablemate Douro Valley were either side of the Moroney mare. With the pace a cracker from the Moody pair Annenkov and Cinque Cento, most horses got a fair transit except Luca Cumani's Purple Moon who was extraordinary into 6th place. Glen Boss rode a superb race to get Kelt winner Princess Coup into third hole but she was no match for Danny O'Brien's pair with Duric riding to his biggest success.
RACE PROFILE
o Barriers have become more important in recent seasons.
o The last three winners were essentially handicappers compared to the previous four who won at G1 WFA races in their careers.
o The three winners before that basically lead all the way.
o Average winner's weight over last 15 years has been 53.5kg. Highest was Northerly's 58 while lightest was Arctic Scent with 49kg.
o Only two mares have won in the last 15 years (Ethereal & Arctic Scent).
o Nine of the last 14 winners have been 4yos.
o Horses in the market have run well but at backable odds.
o Last 15 Years Metropolitan Hcp / Caulfield Cup double Railings ('05), Tawqeet ('06)
o Last 15 Years Craiglee Stks / Caulfield Cup double Sky Heights ('99), Northerly ('02)
o Last 15 Years Underwood Stks / Caulfield Cup double Northerly ('02), Mummify ('03), Elvstroem ('04)
o Last 15 Years Stocks Stks / Caulfield Cup double Arctic Scent ('96)
o Last 15 Years JRA Cup / Caulfield Cup double (no examples)
o Last 15 Years Turnbull Stks / Caulfield Cup double Sky Heights ('99), Northerly ('02), Elvstroem ('04)
o Last 15 Years Yalumba Stks / Caulfield Cup double (no examples)
o Last 15 Years Winning Edge Stks / Caulfield Cup double Master O'Reilly ('07)
SUMMARY & SELECTIONS
What an intriguing race and possibly the race of the carnival. With the Cox Plate possibly falling away and the question marks over how we interpret the numerous overseas entrants at Flemington, this race holds great interest and good form examinations.
The pace should come from wide with Maldivian bringing Guillotine over. Craig Williams lightweight hope must use that advantage to try and overcome the shocking barrier draw. Boundless is superbly drawn as she should take up the same position as her two previous 2400m runs were on-pace. Not sure what the two imports will do while Weekend Hussler has a tricky draw and Corey Brown has some interesting decisions to make with Red Ruler inside the lot.
The New Zealanders play very much an X-Factor role in this race. They all came to Sydney disrespected at 25-1 but ran the quinella in the Derby, easily defeating two of the favourites here in Littorio and Guillotine. Both showed they were hitting their straps as the main targets approach by slashing efforts behind Princess Coup at WFA in the Kelt at Hastings.
The other kiwi Boundless is perfectly placed with a winnable weight and a barrier draw which allows her to go where Caulfield specialist Dwayne Dunn wants. Her two attempts at 2400m were an extraordinary run in the NZ Oaks where she was taken on yet still held on and in the AJC Oaks she was forced to take the field up to a tearaway leader and was a sitting shot for the flying Heavenly Glow. Must have been a tough decision for Oliver to jump off.
David Hayes two remaining 4yos after Kibbutz' scratching have hopes but the one he might have liked the most in Guillotine drew the outside and he was the one who needed cover. You also can't knock the way Littorio has been going making only his second win a G1 Turnbull Stks. He was certainly advantaged by the Set Weights and Penalties at Flemington and must make up the margin he was behind the kiwis at Randwick as a 3yo. No doubt he has improved and matured.
Despite mares not having a great recent record I think we'll tip Boundless to carry Sunline's colours proudly to victory over fellow NZer Red Ruler whose AJC Derby run was quite similar to Mummify's and we saw what he did at Caulfield on this day in 2003.
Of the outsiders a case can be made for Zagreb to run very well and also Riva San given her two tries at a mile and half were G1 wins.
Selection: Boundless
Hardest to Beat: Red Ruler
Best Roughies: Zagreb/Riva San
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