No Diva But A Princess Will Do
Story By by Gary Crispe
Saturday, 25 October 2008:  | | Princess Coup |
There is no Weekend Hussler, Pompeii Ruler, Light Fantastic or even the outstanding Caulfield Guineas winner Whobegotyou lining up. Instead we have a field of solid weight for age performers coming off a variety of form lines plus the three-year-old filly Samantha Miss.
History always plays its part in this weight for age championship and to that end some of the contestants will have to overcome that aspect as well if they are to experience victory.
I find it hard to go past the New Zealand mare Princess Coup who seems to have returned to racing in peak form this campaign, posting a new career Timeform rating last start with a devastating win in the Group One Kelt Stakes (2000m) at Hastings where she defeated Red Ruler and Nom Du Jeu.
That form has been well and truly franked by the Caulfield Cup last week with Nom Du Jeu powering home to beat all bar All The Good with Red Ruler finishing close up in sixth place after pulling up injured and distressed.
Princess Coup comes into the race a Group One winner at her last two starts in New Zealand. Two starts back she was equally as impressive as she was in the Kelt, closing fast from last on the turn at Hastings in the Stony Bridge Stakes to win running away over 1600m beating Nom Du Jeu.
Princess Coup who campaigned in Australia in the Spring of 2007 and this Autumn, raced well on those occasions without much luck.
However her ratings suggest she is a different horse this time around and although she has not seen Moonee Valley previously, I am prepared to take the odds to her being able to make a long swooping run around the field, which if anything like what we have seen her do in New Zealand, should carry her to victory.
Away from Princess Coup there does not seem to be much between the other chances.
Leviathan owner Lloyd Williams has the New Zealand Derby winner C'Est La Guerre and Zipping engaged and I can see both being competitive, especially after their last runs.
Zipping has the higher Timeform rating (126?) coming off his excellent second to Littorio in the Turnbull Stakes but I do have some reservations over the validity of that figure, especially when compared to his historical ratings profile.
Even if does not quite reproduce that full figure, he looks the main danger.
Zipping has already been proven around the Valley with two wins from four runs and has a solid record over 2000m.
Last campaign he contested the Cox Plate third up but finished eighth, beaten just over six lengths behind El Segundo which was a good effort after striking trouble.
This time in he has had a similar preparation. One 1600m race then into the Cox Plate through the Turnbull Stakes. Fresh up he was a closing seventh to Guillotine in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes before his abnormally high rating Turnbull Stakes second.
To be ridden by Danny Nikolic, Zipping looms as the main danger to Princess Coup.
New Zealand Derby winner C'Est La Guerre has raced three times since crossing the Tasman. He impressed fresh up in the Makybe Diva Stakes behind Weekend Hussler then disappointed in the JRA Cup at a Moonee Valley night meeting.
Last start he was much better, rating to his best when fourth in the Yalumba Stakes behind Douro Valley.
He comes back to the Valley today but is worth another chance, especially if the pace is on.
Caulfield Cup runners in the Cox Plate have a relatively poor record. The Cup has provided just three Cox Plate winners in 29 years – Kingston Town (1980), Rising Prince (1985) and Northerly (2001).
The historical signs for Maldivian don't look strong, but given the situation current where the Cox Plate field has fallen away, a fit and in-form Maldivian would look very well placed.
Interestingly trainer Mark Kavanagh has resisted the temptation to start star three-year-old Whibegityou in the Cox Plate after his stunning Caulfield Guineas win, instead relying on Maldivian who will wear blinkers for the first time.
Maldivian has been thereabouts in top company at each of his six runs this campaign but has been accused of not finishing his races off. Kavanagh has experimented with gear changes in an effort to bring the gelding back to his best including the cross over nose band fitted in the Caulfield Cup where he ran well, just failing to get a strong 2400m.
Maldivian also has won twice at Moonee Valley including a most impressive win the last year's JRA Cup over the Cox Plate trip.
At his best Maldivian has a Timeform rating of 123, a figure which would make him very hard to beat should he reproduce it.
While taking on board the Caulfield Cup hoodoo, I believe the pace this afternoon could well suit Maldivian and this combined with a genuine liking for the Valley plus blinkers could see the rock, hard fit galloper take a hand in the finish.
Gay deceiver Sirmione is just impossible to catch as a punting proposition but if in the mood is capable of taking a hand in the finish.
Certainly he has excellent form around Princess Coup and logic would dictate that there should not be much between the pair, all things being equal, again today.
However Sirmione has never placed in four runs at the Valley and is winless in four attempts when fourth up from a spell.
That said his run in the Yalumba Stakes was his best this campaign, in what turned out to be a slowly run affair which did not suit the Bart Cummings-trained galloper.
There is no doubt, if by chance he did get back to his master Timeform rating of 125 today, that he would take a power of beating. But the fact remains his last two wins have been on the spacious Flemington track and that maybe the venue for him to deliver.
Samantha Miss has been the big firmer in betting in the last few weeks. The three-year-old filly will be attempting to become the first of her age and sex to take the Cox Plate since the mighty Surround in 1976.
The fact the race has fallen away a bit has clearly been the catalyst for the heavy backing but the 1000 Guineas result placed some concerns over the merit of the Sydney three-year-old fillies form.
Currently Samantha Miss has a Timeform rating of 120 and it is interesting to contrast her with the grand filly Miss Finland who as a three-year-old with the same rating found the 2006 renewal beyond her.
Many will argue Miss Finland had no luck behind a field which on paper looked much stronger than the field Samantha Miss is opposed this afternoon.
I tend to agree with that view but still have concerns Samantha Miss has not raced against both sexes of her age group this campaign let alone against older, seasoned weight for age horses which she confronts today.
Samantha Miss looks to have scope for further improvement which is the key to her performance. If she can improve against the pressure she will face here, then a record breaking win for the filly is well within her grasp.
On balance however I keep coming back to the proven galloper in peak form at the moment – Princess Coup. With any luck I expect her to be hard to beat.
The main dangers look to be Zipping, Samantha Miss and Maldivian.
Enjoy the race.
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